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It looks like we might have a much bigger problem on our hands than Iraq. We might just be heading into a new world war and why you ask? Well consider the current scenario. FIrst, the U.S. has about 130,000 troops in Iraq. We're trying to organize groups of people who've hated each other for centuries. Insane perhaps but we're trying to do it anyway.
The WW3 part comes in because Iran seems rather insistant on building nuclear weapons. While they state they just want a power source, the reality of the situation is they're going to build a bomb. Now, the Europeans are getting rather rattled about it all. Russia has called them a bad child and they shouldn't be doing things like this. China's not said much of anything. They won't though because they've got a lot of oil development business in Iran, so strife there could cause them problems.
So now people are speaking on referring the problem to the Security Council. It certainly seems appropriate, given the situation. Iran's open defiance of what the west wants, namely no nuclear weapons. They've already defied the IAEA, the internation agency oversees regulation nuclear development of any kind, bet it municipal or otherwise.
So what are the qualifications of invasion per se: Well, we're pretty, we're pretty sure they've got the potential to build nukes or they're getting it. They've disregard international rules, they seem to be a... dare I say it, a rogue nation. But the U.S. can't invade and Iran has said if sanctions happen, then all inspectors will be booted. So what's next?
This is where the WW3 part comes in. Israel already has scenarios to take out various key points in Iran should they proceed. Reports are suggesting March as a possible attack date. Now... if Israel hits Iran, things, more than likely, will get ugly. Anyone who knows history knows Israel beat the hell out pretty much all the arabs in one swoop the last time they all fought. The problem is there are other factors. What if China determines they need to assist Iran to protect their own interests? What happens if fighting spills into Iraq? Would a ground war be right out? Most watchers feel like Iran will be able to start creating weapons with the next 12 mos.
As the New York Times pointed out in their article, the head of Iran said Israel should be wiped off the map. Nukes would allow them to do that. Israel has a legitimate threat on its hands. The U.S. can't bail them out on this one though. We've got most of our resources tied to Iraq. We could probably lend some other naval and air support but the point is clear.
The administration lacks any ability to the deal with the current situation in Iran because of the administration's ineptitude. Once again, the seven Ps are going to get them into trouble. We're going to end up in another conflict in Iran and we've not solve the Iraq issue.
7 Ps: Piss Poor Planning Promotes Piss Poor Performance.
Technorati Tags: Iran, Tehran, Israel, Nukes, SecurityCouncil, IAEA, Russia, China
posted by Stithmeister @ 5:35 PM
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I'm currently working in the telecomm industry but one of my passions is still politics.
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